The number to watch in metro Atlanta's September data isn't the price. It's the contracts. Georgia MLS, one of Atlanta's two main listing services, reported on Oct. 14 that new contracts in its 12-county core market fell to 3,436 in September, 24.8% fewer than a year earlier and the ninth straight month of year-over-year declines. Prices held steady: the median sale price was $399,900, roughly flat from last year.
September at a glance
| September 2026 | Number | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| New contracts (pending) | 3,436 | −24.8% |
| Closed sales | 4,072 | −13.7% |
| Sales volume | $2.043 billion | −11% |
| Median sale price | $399,900 | roughly flat |
| New listings | 8,255 | −6.1% |
| Active listings | 23,006 | +5.3% |
Source: Georgia MLS September market report (12-county Atlanta core), as reported by Atlanta Agent Magazine on Oct. 14. Georgia MLS and the Atlanta REALTORS® Association cover different areas and count differently (Atlanta REALTORS® put the August median at $423,000), so compare each source's year-over-year changes rather than the raw numbers.
Versus August: contracts fell a little less, inventory kept growing
| Georgia MLS | August | September |
|---|---|---|
| Pending sales, year over year | −28.9% | −24.8% |
| Median sale price | $400,000 (−1.7%) | $399,900 (roughly flat) |
| Active listings | 22,897 (+3%) | 23,006 (+5.3%) |
| New listings, year over year | roughly flat | −6.1% |
| Closed sales, year over year | −5.4% | −13.7% |
August figures: Georgia MLS August report, as reported by Metro Atlanta CEO on Sept. 15.
The yearly drop in contracts narrowed from 28.9% in August to 24.8%, but it is still steep. Fewer homes are coming on the market, yet inventory keeps rising. The issue isn't a wave of sellers; it's that buyers are taking longer to commit.
Three ratios we calculated: how much more choice buyers have
Using Georgia MLS's September numbers and their year-over-year changes, we backed out September 2025 and computed three ratios:
| Rough math | Sept. 2025 | Sept. 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Contracts per 100 active listings | about 21 | about 15 |
| New listings per contract signed | about 1.9 | about 2.4 |
| Months of supply (active ÷ monthly closings) | about 4.6 | about 5.6 |
These are our own estimates, meant to show the trend, not official statistics. Five to six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Homes.com, a separate data source, put metro Atlanta's August supply at 5.4 months, the median time on market at 59 days and the sale-to-list ratio at 95.6%. Different methods, same direction: the market has moved from a seller's market to roughly balanced.
Why fewer contracts: rates climbed all September
| Freddie Mac weekly survey | 30-year fixed | 15-year fixed |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3 | 6.71% | 6.04% |
| Sept. 10 | 6.76% | 6.09% |
| Sept. 17 | 6.95% | 6.26% |
| Sept. 24 | 7.03% | 6.42% |
| Oct. 1 | 7.28% | 6.60% |
| Oct. 8 | 7.40% | 6.73% |
| Oct. 15 | 7.40% | 6.71% |
These contracts were signed while the 30-year average rose from 6.71% to above 7%, reaching 7.40% on Oct. 8 and holding there on Oct. 15. A year ago it was 6.27%. For the same loan amount, a rate 1.13 points higher squeezes budgets, and many buyers chose to wait. These are national averages; the rate any borrower gets depends on credit score, down payment and loan type.
What comes next
- October and November closings will likely stay low. A contract comes before a closing, and getting from contract to closing usually takes a little over a month, so a weak September for contracts points to weak closings in the next month or two.
- Fall and winter are the slow season, which isn't bad news for buyers. Axios reported on Sept. 23, citing Realtor.com, that the best time to buy in Atlanta this year is early fall starting in late September, when listings run 14.6% above an average week and median list prices sit 4.2% below the peak season.
- Prices haven't dropped meaningfully yet. More homes and fewer contracts, yet a flat median. Homes are generally selling below list, so price concessions are happening at the negotiating table.
What it means for buyers and sellers
- Buyers: a negotiating window we haven't seen in years. On homes listed for more than a month, you can negotiate price, repairs or seller-paid closing costs; seller credits can also pay for a rate buydown.
- Buyers: rerun your budget at today's rates. A pre-approval from August or early September was written in a roughly 6.7% rate environment; update it before you tour. Get or update a pre-approval. If you expect to move or sell within a few years, it is worth understanding adjustable-rate loans: how a 3/1 ARM works and who it fits.
- Sellers: price it right the first time and stay flexible on terms. Overpriced homes now sit for months. Pricing correctly up front, then flexing on closing-cost credits or repairs, usually beats a string of price cuts. Start with a free home value estimate, then ask me for nearby comparable sales.
- Investors: when contracts are scarce, sellers are more willing to negotiate, which helps when you are looking for a rental with room on price. List prices and rents by city are on the city market data page.
Every neighborhood is different
A slower metro doesn't mean every neighborhood is slow. Earlier this month we watched a well-priced, nicely renovated home in Johns Creek go under contract in one weekend (the story). Good homes at the right price still move fast; overpriced ones now sit for months. For the buying process, costs and city profiles, see the Atlanta home buying guide.
Want to see September's sales and listings in the neighborhood you're watching? Send me the name and I'll put the latest comparable sales together for you.
